Remember the BCG matrix? I think Microsoft is desperately trying to keep Windows in the "cash cow" quadrant, while the consumer is starting to look at it as a "dog." For teens and people in their 20s, Windows is the OS that your mom and dad use. I just think the product has run its course. Just like GM couldn't revive Oldsmobile, Microsoft (the GM of the software world) can't revive Windows. Android and iOS already own the tablet/handheld space. That war is over, unless Apple and Google seriously stagnate. Microsoft had more than their fair share of shots at winning that and failed miserably, because their approach was always one of expanding lock-in to Windows rather than really building stuff that people enjoyed using.
I mostly agree, especially your last sentence. With the exception of our Exchange/AD environment at work (which everyone uses Macs on top of) I only boot Windows when some piece of software I can't get around requires it. I've used a combination of OS X and various Linux flavors to do everything for a few years now and haven't missed MS one bit.
My father on the other hand (who told me I was nuts back in the 90's when I explained how Linux/OSS would change everything) still clings to Windows even though it's a major source of frustration for my folks. I would even raise the age you posited, as I am in my early 30's (though it could just be that I'm immature).
I disagree with your assertion that the war for mobile is won, however. I think MS is down, but certainly not out. If the last 10 years are any indication, things can turn around in the blink of an eye.