How about we instead make Earth be a planet good for humans and living beings?
We can slow down AI development and make it a companion for us, not a replacement.
We don't need to automate ourselves out of it. Or take the risk of extinction.
Just like with nukes, we decided to not blow up the planet. We can too change this.
GDP is a terrible measure. I bet we will see a huge drop on HDI with so many suicides and people going through hell because their job got automated or they no longer see meaning in life, feeling powerless.
Instead they should run an estimate on how many would suicide until 2030 if the 'extreme scenario' happens.
Big GDP growth and a lot of people no longer finding purpose in their lives, going bankrupt, losing their homes and family etc.
For Anthropic, you are just clearly a number. They only care about output.
Make less your life about your work. It's so hard for some people, myself included to do that. But you need to do that!
Some people don't even want to work at all or work in a successful product or whatever. We created all those silly expectations for ourselves, often they aren't even our expectations but the expectations of others.
Those expectations, our desires often make us very miserable.
For instance, 90%+ of the people in the world would dream of living in Sweden, despite your bad outlook of the job market. It's all about perspective.
Of course, if you can afford, pay a psychologist. They may help you better to deal with your emotions and help you find out what you need.
Maybe try building something... if you want, hit me up, see my profile. But maybe first try to chill down and enjoy life a bit.
Dario's messaging has been extremely confusing and HE'S RESPONSIBLE for further increasing the negative sentiment of the public towards AI.
He's clearly focusing on being on the news to provoke emotions on people, preparing for the Anthropic big blockbuster IPO.
Dario, Sam Altman and others should instead be praying every night that this will take us to the Singularity VERY SOON, because if it doesn't, the entire country will blame them for absolutely destroying their retirement and the US' economy once this AI Datacenter bubble pops.
I often wonder if there's a chance, even if minimal... that they stole the weights of the Anthropic models they run on their datacenter... or are actively destillating it.
I think the more likely explanation is that the Cursor data they effectively acquired for $10B was extremely valuable for their training when combined with the insane number of GB300s xAI has for training.
Nowadays you can just start with a plan.md and add everything you want there, verification etc
And you can build a loop to verify/validate it in case its a big/long-running plan
I don't have the problems you mentioned that the models aren't able to follow instructions throughoutly, they do make some mistakes, but it's up to you to set up a process that would work for your codebase to understand that the mistakes were made and need to be fixed, that can be done in a loop for example.
Agents are getting very good also on inventing features. Features that the dev might even like, or might just ignore they exists...unless looking at the code or asking the agent specifically.
Specs are great to identify what has been implemented without explicit control, and to get control over it - if needed.
Also, I think specs are a good way to have bird's-eye of the whole project, for sanity and long term maintanance.
It's exactly this. Not only this, we might be running very soon into cheap compute soon given the current CAPEX of all hyperscalers.
DeepSeek is model that you can run anywhere, meaning that any datacenter/company could run it at a price that would give them a margin taking in account running costs of the datacenter + depreciation.
I'm very sure we're overbuilding capacity, and we'll find out around 2027.
Those open weights will become extremely attractive because all that datacenter extra capacity laying idle will be possible to be used by builders.
It may be the case that in 2027-2028 will be cheaper to start a new AI model company from scratch to compete with Anthropic/OpenAI as you'll be able to:
- the new company won't be tied to so much capital, debt and running costs
- get much cheaper datacenters to train than it is Today, as the big labs will be stuck with bad infra contracts
- have great engineers/researchers willing to jump ship because if Anthropic/OpenAI valuation falls, that will destroy their equity
- wide available chinese models to distill from, papers and ideas on how to acquire datasets
Anthropic/OpenAI are playing an extremely risky game, they need to greatly keep doubling their bets and delivering model big performance increments.
If they don't give us ASI/AGI in 2 years or find huge new markets, there's no way the economics will make sense.
The execs forgot why AI models even exist (like huge usage for the cyber models, or new types of models)...
AI models' usage is mostly tied to build Software Today, that's where the value really lies now.
If there isn't enough Software to be built as people claim to the rate they expect, eventually the supply of AI models will outstrip the demand.
You can't sell pick & shovels infinitely, AI models themselves are also in that category.
Eventually you need enough holes to be dug, and gold to be struck, and nobody knows what's that demand. (even though they built all that supply...)
Interesting perspective. Things are definitely going to change and open weight will have a huge impact in the US as token costs are way to high now.
Definite impacts to Anthropic/OpenAI but let's not forget Meta and Grok are out there too and same with Gemini.
Infrastructure costs - great points. Are we really going to have datacenters in space? If so, what will be overall cost structure with launch being the new cost factor but basically eliminating power and cooling. If it does work and takes off, what about all those expensive data centers on earth that were built and are being built. I do not see much discussion on this but probably because it's not a definite data centers in space will happen and by when. Musk has done unbelievable things but usually not on his original timelines but years further out.
> Are we really going to have datacenters in space
I haven't properly thought through the thermal engineering problems here but cooling a data center in the vacuum of space seems like a hard thing to solve.
There are plenty of computers on the ISS and on satellites in space, but nothing on the same scale of compute and density.
I agree that the trend of token price should be going down but it should also consider the effect and gain per token so it varies among different models, mainly according to their capability and availability. There’s a long way to go before it meets the equilibrium state.
So I think we should not limit our field of view on software development but on realms where ai software has not penetrated yet. That’s the blue ocean for ai business. The forth industry revolution hasn’t begun yet. The new steam engine powered textile machine is on the stage of developing and experiment yet.
The question is whether they can penetrate those markets before going bankrupt
My take: no
They are still pretty much competing for software development, you see only tiny verticals being tried by OpenAI and Anthropic, with Claude Design et al
This can be better done by other companies, with a fresh balance sheet, don't you think?
There'll be plenty of people at Anthropic and OpenAI opening those companies
I agree you on these issues. When we look back to the first and second industry revolution, how many companies survive to today since then? It takes time and it’s a relay game, but more fast than past.
So I think there’re huge opportunities for everyone involving in.
Talking back to deepseek’s announcement, I think it is smart and funny but we needn’t to be panic on this forecasted price rising at all. Just sit and relax, and wait for big news announced by other model players. At least glm 5.3 is on its way.
As a ML/LLM engineer in a ecommerce analytics SaaS company, I can't stress how useful LLMs are for me, and gladly - for a 5-man company our LLM expenses are 1.5k including coding agents. Great ROI.
If you add all those .md files to your AGENTS.md, your harness will likely load all those files into context. This will create context pollution for you.
Context, similar to your computer's memory, is limited.
Additionally, the more things the AI has in context, the worse it performs.
Skills helps you to quickly add more context for doing things, without polluting your context window.
I think you need to learn about AI, there isn't anything hype there. It's just an easier way of giving more context to the AI.
This can be helpful, for example, if you have an internal API that does XYZ, and you want the AI to know that API, you can save that API, its endpoints and authenticaiton methods to a skill, and invoke it when you want your harness (CC, Codex) to know about the existance of that API, to make requests, make tests etc.
ZuckOff!
I wish they'd just make them illegal, it would be easier.
Like, if people want to use it on their private property, alright, legal.
But in public? I never accepted any terms and conditions for it...
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