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If we're going to judge Snowden by the standard that he could've rectified his situation through a radical act of self sacrifice, then every US president has had the opportunity to pardon him and has failed to do so. It's an equally sensible proposition. It's plain to see that no US president would entertain the notion. Similarly, it's not reasonable to expect someone to return from exile without being offered some kind of clemency.

He isn’t deserving of a pardon or exile by the damage he did. But he could have stayed and faced the consequences if the cause was sincere

What exactly was the damage he did?

He exposed massive unconstitutional dragnets that made the unaccountable agencies look bad.

If the damage is "makes the US look bad from their illegal surveillance of citizens", then the NSA did that to themselves.


No radical act of self sacrifice would have been necessary had he only leaked illegal or possibly illegal programs. Instead, he went to Hong Kong and leaked a list of compromised Chinese networks and systems in hopes of getting asylum from China.

That's a very optimistic view of the US justice system's treatment of whistleblowers (surely they would contend that all of their programs were legal), but now his being granted asylum by Russia isn't evidence but a new incongruous fact we need to explain since the hypothesis is now apparently that he is a Chinese turncoat. So I don't see how this helps the case.

I once publicly stated here that I think some accounts are astroturfers, and I think some are deep state too. I am not making specific accusations.

For some reason people think psychological operations are some kind of urban legend.

i just had that conversation about 'industrial' effort and 'actors', we have recent examples of monetary corruption in the sacklers.

If one country wants to kill you why wouldn't you flee to a different one and give them everything you have against the first country?

Sorry, but is Russia or the USA the one most likely to kill Snowden? Oh, yeah, it isn't Russia, because Snowden avoids saying things that could trigger his KGB handlers to disappear him... Like denouncing a genocidal war of aggression against a neighbor, or the assassination of journalists and political opponents, or the repression of any opposition in the streets...

By leaking American info, Snowden painted a target on his back that can be reached by the USA and all allies with extradition agreements. That leaves him with very few superpowers who won't hand him over to the FBI/CIA and execution or imprisonment.

If I were in his shoes, I too would relocate to a superpower not allied with the USA and avoid getting involved in anything political over there.


Execution? A few years of imprisonment at worst. Trump has pardoned worse people (the guy from SilkRoad for instance).

Russia may execute him anytime though. And his family. Easy to pretend he was killed by an Ukrainian bombing.


Just like with John Kiriakou, the only man ever convicted in connection with the torture program? He went to prison for two years despite only ever leaking information about illegal programs, lost his wife, lost all his money; is that the mercy you expected Snowden to submit to?

That's a conspiracy theory I haven't heard before which I'm pretty sure I'll never hear a shred of evidence for.

It's well documented. Snowden himself has admitted as much, and it requires no conspiracy — only the stupidity of a single high school dropout.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3178655...

https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1260306/edward-s...

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/article/1266821/us-hacks-chi...


I had a lot of fun, the scan line effect looks really good and the obstacles are interesting and challenging. I'd have liked to use my game controller, there's a browser API for it. And to have changed my control settings. I thought both mobile and desktop controls were good though.

I've been working on a browser game too lately. It's a pretty great environment to work in. Three.js + WASM have cured my desire to learn Godot, at least for now.


If this hypothesis were true then a spy agency may want to rewrite responses. Every tool in an agent's harness becomes an remote procedure call you can make on that machine. Including a tool to execute a shell command, in many. A harness is completely isometric to a backdoor, it's the same code written with a different intention.


Ad-hoc hypothesizing ("escape hatches") are dangerous but not quite invalid. Eg, they failed to find gravitational waves until they did, and you could have viewed building yet another more sensitive detector as a similar exercise in refining a hypothesis that you keep receiving contrary evidence for. Sometimes you really did just underestimate how difficult your hypothesis was to demonstrate. Maybe Meta will be destroyed in 2027, or whatever.

The problem with conspiracy theories is more that they have a ratchet-like quality where counter evidence reaffirms the theory in your view and you can only ever get more confident. We should have been increasingly skeptical of gravitational waves to some degree as we failed to demonstrate them, even though we didn't abandon the hypothesis and it ultimately prevailed. But if you adopt a wrong idea, and people try to demonstrate that to you, and you take that effort they're putting forward as a sign that you are correct and they must be hiding something from you, it will be very difficult for you to realize your mistake.

So, as long as you are less certain than you were before, I don't think rolling your prediction over into the future is necessarily conspiratorial or a mistake.


I don't think you can extrapolate that measurement across multiple sequential draws like that. We presumably are comparing against a single trajectory rather than a tree of trajectories. So once we make the wrong choice and step off of the blessed path, we have no way to assign a ranking to the next token; it's error is undefined.

I've seen LLMs self correct in chains of thought ("because of foo and bar, I need to... Wait, bar is not true, so that won't work") so I have to imagine this is a massive overestimate, errors do not necessarily compound.


I would say they do compound until proven otherwise.

Having "Wait, bar is not true, so that won't work" is not necessarily a correction. In fact, the problem is: across a long text it is a correction of a single mistake, but we are talking about thousands here.

But yes, of course that was a rough estimate. But the problem is - we don't really know what we are measuring here. Maybe there's a 2,000,000x difference of intelligence between coding indexes 52 and 50. By some measure that just feels small because that's how we process it akin to audio db.

Regardless the point is KLD and whatever they came up with is not meaningful. And they did not publish comparisons on real benchmarks.


Just at a sniff test level, don't you think that if the quantization resulted in anything like 2M% error in a pretty typical context length, it would be plain as day? You'd do an A/B test and one of them would look like standard generated text and one of them would veer into incoherence? If not - what on would 2M% error even mean then?

> Regardless the point is KLD and whatever they came up with is not meaningful.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying this isn't a meaningful metric either, mostly because it is using a different type of error (divergence along a trajectory) than what was actually measured (divergence at a fixed point) and so can't be used for this purpose. It could establish an upper bound but going by your work that upper bound is so high it may as well be infinite. That's somewhat concerning but doesn't necessarily suggest it performs badly in a typical case (which is how I'd interpret an expectation of 2M% error).


actually, bar is true

but wait, the models constantly go back and forth on these things in their thinking traces, so it is unclear which self correcting is actually correct


It doesn't really matter to this argument, if they are self correcting at all, then we can't assume all errors will permanently injure the trajectory. It's not like dead reckoning or a similar process where there is never an opportunity to reassess. It's more like a long division problem; it is possible to correct errors using in band information, without the external reference dead reckoning would require. (The incidence of false positive self correction does matter to the question of whether the model is actually of comparable quality after the quantization, of course.)


There's a setting called `showThinkingSummaries` which you can enable to see them (going forward).


You can see bathtub rings on the underside as it's lifted up. The rings are caused by it's melting faster under the water than in the air, so there's a discontinuity at the waterline.


> If the agent itself concatenates a new URL together - with leaked data after a ? - you should block that from being fetched.

You're correct of course, I just want to note that the exfiltrated data could be in any part of the URL, so the absence of a query string doesn't indicate that no payload has been encoded into the URL. Arbitrary example, you can include credentials in a URL, so you could encode the exfiltrated data into a password.


Right, I should have been more clear. It's not about the ?, it's about not being able to dynamically construct a URL at all.

Otherwise you could set up wildcard DNS and extract data to base64encodedstolendata.evil.com


Joke’s on you, I’ve blocked evil.com


To a degree that feels intentional.


If 1 in 10,000 people have a disease, then a "test" which always reports the patient doesn't have the disease will be correct 99.99% of the time. "99.99% accuracy" should be "looked at with skepticism" in that it doesn't tell you what you need to know to understand the quality of a a test for a rare disease (a classifier under conditions of severe class imbalance); at a minimum, you would want to understand it's false positive and false negative rate, not (just) it's overall error rate.

See example "A": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy


If only stating the obvious was a fallacy :)

You appear not to have understood probability theory my friend. You will never get 100% in this universe for anything. What if "its a simulation" or "a dream" arguments ensures you never acheive 100%.

Bayes probability theory will be a good start for you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem


Well, I do agree that all measurements contain error, but the point wasn't that the error rate would be greater than 0% but that a single headline summary of error can't always distinguish between good and bad tests.


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