Elasticity 0.8-2.2 means there are/were cases (<1) where an increase of H2b would mean lost 20% US jobs per additional visa or do I read that wrong? I didn't read anything about average or median elasticity or how those figures are ranged in the article.
It's not that it doesn't make sense, you just said it, they regret - well maybe not regret since they'd never made it without, but they now want to reverse a decision they feel needs to be overhauled.
I always thought they'll replace Linux with Fuchsia but that hasn't happened and it's not like they couldn't have done it.
It's no secret that history is always written from a victor's perspective so I'm fairly confident that the history books of tomorrow are already being hallucinated today because AI is here to stay.
Maybe the victor will be whoever doesn't fall into the trap of believing that a next word predictor optimized through RLHF to sound convincing to the average human [1] is in any way intelligent, and restructuring their entire economy and military around doing whatever the magic oracle machine says.
If the entire "free world" goes all-in, the history books will likely be written by Iran, Russia and North Korea.
[1] possibly to the point of presenting a superstimulus that bypasses any facilities for critical thinking. This might be easier to solve than many other problems that are used for evaluating A"I" performance, and very likely doesn't require genuine intelligence, just brute-force search + evolution
AI's power and water requirements are at odds with what is required to address climate change, so it really isn't a given that it's either inevitable or a permanent addition to society.
I admire your optimism. The only thing I see stopping AI is widespread nuclear war, or if we’re lucky widespread destruction of the electric grid leading to a collapse in gas’s and oil supply for only a billion or two dead.
You seem to be implying that mankind will decide to scale back AI in favour of tackling climate change, or that it won’t happen but AI will not destroy at least the economy which powers AI long before unrecoverable climate change will occur.
If AI kills us all, doesn’t matter about climate change - some species will adapt and thrive, some will die out
If AI destroys jobs, there will be no demand for energy so oil will no longer be burnt at the scale currently causing so much problem
Your view seems to be AI will continue in approximately the current state for the next 20 years? I don’t see how that happens. Best case scenario to me is a 2001/2008/2020 style crash coupled with an actual limit to LLM capacity so countries pesss exposed to capitalist systems will draw back from current AI for a few decades.
Or am I missing something? How do you foresee the next 20 years?
> If AI destroys jobs, there will be no demand for energy
Quite the leap there. Are you imagining billions dying off with no food and no further consumption while the AI overlords cruise about in their yachts between bunkers while zooming into Davos to cosplay as Davros and chuckle about the fate of the poors?
That aside, the earth land / sea layer is still lagging in its reaction the gigatonnes of CO2 already aloft .. which isn't going to magically disappear for some generations.
Even if AI destroys jobs there will still be fossil fuel consumption adding to the CO2 already there.
> Are you imagining billions dying off with food and no further consumption while the AI overlords cruise about in their yachts between bunkers while zooming into Davos to cosplay as Davros and chuckle about the fate of the poors?
Well that’s certainly one scenario. And that scenario would decimate co2 emissions. Sure things will continue to get worse, but as most of humanity will be dead they won’t be concerned.
So your view of billions not dying is somewhat optimistic for the future
Interesting project. How does it compare to GSD (opengsd.net)? Just from the command set it seems a lot lighter but also less expressive.
GSD is quite OK but very token hungry (~4x but it buys traceability and has quite a powerful autonomous mode)
I use gsd-meta-manager to manage multiple GSD projects in parallel without having to use a skill to query each project individually to see where they're at. Does openspec have something like that too?
You'd have to make it a positive statement to give it more weight since negatives leave too many options open. Instead of "don't..." try "as far as possible, always try to reinforce sentences and assumptions rather than contradicting them" - worth a try. Worst case you just get more reinforcement gibberish before it plugs back into the contradictions but that's just a guess.
Indeed but it will use the same language when talking to subagents so humans are no different to LLMs in Claude's world view (model).
One trait that I've seen more with the newer 5er model series is ", but it's actually worse..." or "I said to do this and it did that instead but it was right and I was wrong." - so I assume that a larger part of what they call thinking complexity is (not to much surprise) inherently related to questioning incoming assumptions.
YES - and 3 the the assumption that it needs to be a certain length before it can be considered a design document.
Esp. in the age of AI a little guidance to brainstorm on before a random project prompt goes a long way. (Not saying people that don't use design docs just code away thoughtlessly) - experience goes a long way too that's why there's success stories with and without design docs.
What makes you say that on climate change? I was still prophesied ice ages when in high school, then 12ft water increases and sunk Maldives in university and we still have roughly the same weather.
We have advanced climate studies since your "high school" (sounds like 50 years ago if you heard ice age prophecies), and at the moment it's like 99% of the scientists working in the field or related agree we're at the progressing climate emergency.
> we still have the same weather.
Oh.... So your local weather is now deciding the global temperature patterns, averages or temperature records being broken year on year?
Oh, then do explain the unbearable temp that we're going through last few years, that's completely not normal for my country, winters not needing worm clothes, and very little rain during the monsoon. This weeks heatwave left us wondering how to cope the next year, which already seems going to be worse
It makes us realize there are people who gets fed climate denying propaganda, simply because they're not yet going through it. And these people are like flat earthers, blind to see the reality lay beyond them in full view. Or worse sees the reality but ignores it
All I know is that in the 80s a scientist I respect predicted that coral would be bleached by changing global climate on a specific timeline which turned out to be spot on, and his advice then and now was that we need to seriously curb carbon emissions to avoid worse outcomes for life on earth. Until someone opposed to this suggestion comes up with a prediction equally as long range and impressive I'm afraid I can't really take their protests too seriously.
Right, and one of those industries is checks notes orders of magnitude smaller than the industries and secondary industries that benefit from denying climate change.
Really makes one think, if they try. Would need to ask Claude if there is some real middle ground here.
I've come to the point where I've thrown up my hands and decided we live in a little snow globe. There's no such thing as pollution, were just mixing existing things together. Nothing new under the sun. Sure, that mix might not be compatible with human life, but something will surely take its place. And maybe that something won't rely on selfishness to drive collective progress the way we do.
At some point you realise that an $11tn industry, with $7tn in handouts and subsidies every year, has spent billions on astroturfing, political capture, and straight PR to deny the obvious and keep itself on life support at the expense of everyone else.
There's no both sides here. One side is staffed by scientists, the other by dictators and corporate lunatics.
Co-Authored By: Haiku 4.5
reply